Direct, surrogates or outcomes?

Students are quite often confused during discussions of these various types of efficacy measures. It is really not surprising, as many clinicians I discuss with also seem quite unclear about these concepts.

But these are to me quite important ideas; ideas which are quite often overlooked during drug development and the design of therapeutic regiments. And we do pay a price for neglecting them.

When we move from the bench to the bedside, we do lose the ability to assess drug response. Often we do not even begin to recognize just how much we have lost in our ability to do this. Yet it is vitally important for us to be able to do this because if we cannot, we will not be able to rationally manage our dosage regiments. This is one of the great difficulties in managing therapeutics.

In a relative small subset of therapeutic situations we do have direct measurements of drug effect - such as in the management of hyper/hypotension or hyper/hypoglycaemia. The blood pressure and blood sugar responses serve us well. A similar possibility exists with the management of the INR using warfarin.

In many therapeutic situations, no clear biological marker of drug response exists; or the therapeutic aims is actually far more complex compared to the immediate aspects of drug response. In these situations the desired drug response may actually be an 'outcome' measure - such as the control of epilepsy or arrhythmia, or even the management of depression and psychoses. In such situations, a surrogate for drug action should be available that can allow real time management of drug dosages. In some situations, measuring drug concentrations, can provide you with a reasonable surrogate for managing dosages. This is referred to as having a 'target concentration strategy', or more popularly called therapeutic drug monitoring.

Admittedly, good surrogate measures are often not even available. This deficiency creates a therapeutic environment where 'therapeutists' are often limited to relatively fixed, or inflexible dosage regiments, and therefore cannot deal effectively with any patient variability in drug response. This could be as comforting as having your pilot fly blind.

The recent problems with rofecoxib (Vioxx) provides an interesting example. While initially developed for the management of inflammatory joint disease, the selective Cox2 inhibitor found a new use in the prevention of intestinal polyps. When used as an anti-inflammatory analgesic, rheumatologists could manage drug dosages through assessing pain relief, joint involvement etc. When it came to the prevention of intestinal polyps, the therapeutist essentially had to 'fly blind' using fixed dose regiments, since there was neither direct nor surrogate measures of drug action. Intestinal polyposis was at best an outcome measure that could only be assessed at the end of treatment periods. Were there patients who over over-dosed or under-dosed? Very likely. Could we have better managed the dosages, and consequently the risks of cardiovascular mortality? Quite likely; but we will never know now. Rofecoxib was eventually withdrawn from the market.

A pity, perhaps.