“The things we hate about ourselves aren't more real than things we like about ourselves.” Ellen Goodman


Sunday, August 21, 2016

Understanding clinical efficacy of drugs (2) - variability in a population


This is a another way of looking at the same plot that was shown in the previous post. A plot representing the chance of a beneficial effect (blue) and a similar plot representing the chance of a detrimental effect (red). The difference here, is that the plots are now a sample of a simulated population with a variation in sensitivity to the drug effect. Likewise, the toxicity profile. In this plot, the therapeutic range is defined as being between an empirical 'average' threshold for the beneficial effect (on the left), and the unacceptable 'average' level of toxicity (on the right). The understanding here, is that potentially you can continue to increase the dose from the left boundary of the therapeutic range, if a stronger drug response is needed. The downside to this is that there will be an increased risk of toxicity. The right boundary to the therapeutic range basically limits the dose increase as any further increase in toxicity risk becomes unacceptable.

As in the previous post, the clinical efficacy plots can be generated from the simulated population. It is shown here with the therapeutic range superimposed. As can be seen, there is an optimal zone where clinical efficacy is maximum. Here is concentration where you can expect maximum benefits with minimum risk of toxicity.

But it should be recognized that this only an expectation of the 'average' response within a population. What should be specifically noted here is the variability and wide scatter of response types within the population sample. For any specific patient within this simulated population, the clinical efficacy is unique, and may look totally unlike the population 'average'

The question is, how do you recognize and deal with this response variability?

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